9 January 2014 - 看涨黄金的23个理由

Posted: 09 Jan 2014 03:01 AM PST

From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-01-09/161297208.html

2013年是黄金相当糟糕的一年，黄金ETF经历了大量的流出，印度对黄金进口采取限制措施，美国经济好转等等因素都使金价大跌。

　　不过Big Gold编辑Jeff Clark则给出了23个看涨黄金的理由。

　　末日博士麦嘉华(Marc Faber)之前曾说："虽然有很多对黄金的看跌情绪，但很多国家却在囤积黄金。他们买入的量甚至会超过年度产量，因此我认为金价这是在触底，未来会有更高的价格。"

　　Santiago Capital的首席执行官Brent Johnson此前说金价可能在几年内升到5000美元/盎司。

　　著名投资者Jim Rogers在去年11月称自己从未售出过任何黄金也不能想象售出黄金。

　　金融大鳄索罗斯(George Soros)则收购了大量的黄金矿商ETF并保留自己在Barrick的股份。

　　全球商品策略师Don Coxe认为在经济恢复的状况下，金价会上涨，"你需要黄金当保障。"

　　一直不喜欢黄金的股票大师Jeffrey Gundlach称黄金是"应该要加到投资组合中的和其它资产非相关的资产。而且确实比较便宜。"

　　《福布斯》杂志首席行政官Steve Forbes则预计黄金标准会回来。

　　McEwen Mining首席行政官及Goldcorp创始人Rob McEwen再次重申了自己对金价会涨到5000美元/盎司的预测。

　　Casey"s Research的Doug Casey认为目前的金价不能和2001年时250美元/盎司比，以现在的货币来看，仍然是比较便宜的，并称自己已经持续几年买入黄金并且会继续买。

　　除了以上这些预测之外，很多国家央行对黄金的增持也是黄金市场的积极因素。

　　土耳其在2013年11月增持13吨黄金，全年增持约143.6吨，较前年增加22.5%。

　　俄罗斯在2013年增持约57.37吨黄金，其黄金储备达到1015吨。

　　韩国2013年底黄金储备较2012年底时增加了约23.7%。

　　哈萨克斯坦每个月都在买入黄金，2013年较2012年增持黄金约21%。

　　阿塞拜疆从原本没有黄金到拥有16吨黄金储备。

　　斯里兰卡和乌克兰各自在去年增持5.5和6.22吨黄金。

　　中国取代印度成为黄金第一大消费国，尽管官方不宣布具体黄金持有数字，但从图表中可看出黄金在中国的巨大需求。

　　此外，还有一些商业银行是值得注意的。

　　高盛(Goldman Sachs)在2013年第二季度一方面建议客户出售黄金买入美国国债，一方面却自己买入了创纪录的370万股黄金股。并且当委内瑞拉打算以抵押黄金的方式环球现金时，也是高盛参与了进去。

　　法兴银行(Société Générale)策略师Albert Edwards认为在标普500指数跌到450，国债收益率跌到1%下方后，金价会升到10000美元/盎司。

　　摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)此前曾推荐客户"准备好金价短期回升"。

　　加拿大丰业银行(Scotia Mocatta)的Sunil Kashyap认为尽管黄金ETF有大量售出，但中国和印度的实物需求很大，会支撑金价。

　　德国商业银行(Commerzbank)认为今年金价会进入繁荣时期，由于中国和印度的需求，该行预计今年底金价涨至1400美元/盎司。

　　美林美银(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)此前重申了对金价的长期看涨。

　　花旗银行(Citibank)的高级技术分析师Tom Fitzpatrick认为金价可涨至3500美元/盎司。"我们认为我们又回到了黄金是硬通货的轨道上，我们预计这一趋势会继续。"

　　从上面这23个理由来看，或许黄金牛市确实还远未结束。

Source:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-01-09/161297208.html

9 January 2014 - India women's group seeks limit on gold given at weddings

Posted: 09 Jan 2014 02:55 AM PST

From:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en//mineweb-gold-news?oid=224313&sn=Detail

MUMBAI (REUTERS) -

The women's commission of India's Kerala state is seeking to limit the amount of gold given at weddings to no more than 80 grams to reduce the burden on families and help ease India's trade deficit.

Most Indians see gifts of gold, mostly jewellery, from the bride's family to the groom as auspicious for a marriage, helping to ensure financial security.

But grooms have been seeking increasing amounts of gold as rising duties and restrictions on imports have led to a shortage in India, the world's second-largest gold consumer after China.

"The tendency among our parents (has become) to sell residential property to buy gold for marriages and go for rented houses," K.C. Rosakutty, chairperson of the Kerala Women's Commission told Reuters.

"This is creating a lot of trouble for families."

The state of Kerala now uses up to 400 grams of gold per wedding, or 80 metric tonnes per year - about a tenth of India's total demand in 2012.

The commission has sought a meeting with Kerala Chief Minister Oommen Chandy to press for a limit on gold gifts at 80 grams, which would cost about 224,800 rupees ($3,600). Chandy could not immediately be reached for comment.

The proposal is unlikely to find any takers in political circles ahead of elections due by May, experts said.

"Gold is more of a culturally deep-rooted thing, and this would find resistance among women themselves," said Rammohan Kamath, secretary of the Calicut Bullion Dealers Association in Kerala.

"This will all remain on paper. Even for political parties, the gold jewellery business is a big money spinner for elections," Kamath said, adding that implementing the cap would be difficult anyway.

If the proposal were to be accepted, it would be good news for Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram. Apart from raising gold import duties to a record 10 percent last year, he has also been vocal about the need to end Indians' fascination with gold.

Bullion prices have risen by 120 times since 1972 to about 29,000 rupees per 10 grams currently, data from the Reserve Bank of India showed.

Meanwhile, India's gold imports have dropped by more than 50 percent in recent months from previous average levels of about 60 tonnes per month.

Imports fell to 21 tonnes in November from a record of 162 tonnes in May, and the total for 2014 is expected to drop to around 500 to 550 tonnes, according to trade body All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation.

(editing by Jane Baird)

Source:http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en//mineweb-gold-news?oid=224313&sn=Detail

9 January 2014 - 看涨黄金的23个理由

9 January 2014 - 看涨黄金的23个理由

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