27 January 2014 - 金价涨至1270上方 市场关注本周美联储会议 |
- 27 January 2014 - 金价涨至1270上方 市场关注本周美联储会议
- 27 January 2014 - Argentina Devaluation Triggers 30% Whirlpool Price Markup
- 27 January 2014 - Gold rallies to 2-month high on safe-haven bids
- Seminar Simpanan, Pelaburan & Perniagaan Emas Fizikal - Muhamad Azlan Bin Yusuf
- 27 January 2014 - Argentina Seen Extending World’s Biggest Currency Decline
- 27 January 2014 - Contagion Spreads in Emerging Markets as Crises Grow
| 27 January 2014 - 金价涨至1270上方 市场关注本周美联储会议 Posted: 27 Jan 2014 02:44 AM PST From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-01-27/161800120.html 上周五(1月24日)新兴市场遭遇猛烈抛售，美股大受影响，黄金的避险保值价值凸显，承接前一交易日涨势，涨到近1270美元/盎司。周一(1月27日)金价自1269美元/盎司开，涨到1272美元/盎司附近波动。 本周美联储就将召开今年第一次FOMC会议，市场预计本次会议上美联储可能决定再度缩减QE，因此黄金市场前景仍然不算明朗。 在Kitco对交易员、投资者和技术分析师等进行的本周金价走向的调查中，22名参与者中的13人认为金价会上涨，5人认为会下跌，4人持中间态度。 著名贵金属研究机构GFMS的贵金属需求高级分析师Erica Rannestad认为金价上涨有几个理由："季节性的需求会上升，中国春节马上就要到了。而1月28日到期的期权有价格上行压力，在新年的期货市场，未平仓合约数量开始减少，很可能是一些参与者在结清空头仓。合约还在继续被处理，还有大约1300万盎司的未平仓合约需要被处理或结清。" 预计金价在本周会下跌的分析师们则认为金价需要消化最近的涨势，很可能一些投资者们有所收获后会在继续投资前对走势方向有所犹豫。 而持中间态度的分析师们最关注的自然是本周美联储的FOMC会议。 "我对本周金价走势持中间态度，因为大部分人都在等待FOMC会议而处在观望中。"ABC Bullion的首席经济学家Jordan Eliseo说，"技术上来说，金价看起来很稳固，而且印度还传来了可能放松黄金进口限制的声音，而且黄金ETF的一些流入量也是对价格有支撑的。我们认为美联储会在这次会议上继续缩减100亿美元的QE，但由于本月初非农数字糟糕，其调子可能会偏鸽派。" 美联储本周FOMC会议将在1月28日至29日召开。 Source:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-01-27/161800120.html | ||||||||||||||||||
| 27 January 2014 - Argentina Devaluation Triggers 30% Whirlpool Price Markup Posted: 27 Jan 2014 02:38 AM PST From:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-27/argentina-devaluation-triggers-30-whirlpool-price-markup.html A sign in the window of Quintex, a hardware store in the Wilde neighborhood of Buenos Aires, shows the effect of the peso's biggest devaluation since 2002. "Out of respect for our clients, this store will remain closed until our providers set their prices," it reads. Other shopkeepers chose not to wait to see the results of last week's 15 percent depreciation, raising prices as much as 30 percent on appliances, electronics, wine and other goods that aren't regulated by the government, while supermarkets seemed to abide by food-price accords reached earlier this month. President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner left for Cuba over the weekend, days before the start of a regional summit, leaving top aides to try to contain price increases as investors raised bets on further declines in the peso. "The first reaction has been a paralyzation of almost all the markets for goods and services tied to the official exchange rate," Domingo Cavallo, who as economy minister in 1991 linked the peso to the dollar at one-to-one, said in a telephone interview from Cordoba, Argentina. "No one wants to sell merchandise at a price if they don't know what the rate will be tomorrow." Twelve-month non-deliverable peso forwards plunged 10 percent last week to 12 per dollar, signaling the currency will weaken 33 percent over the next year from the current 8.0014. The extra yield, or spread, investors demand to hold the nation's dollar-denominated bonds instead of Treasuries jumped 1.02 percentage point to 10.43 percentage points, the highest since September. The government is monitoring prices in the wake of the devaluation, Cabinet Chief Jorge Capitanich said Jan. 25. Price Abuse "Household appliances, cars, electronics and other goods with a percentage of imported parts will be subject to a permanent monitoring by the trade secretary to guarantee their supply and reasonable price," Capitanich wrote in messages on his Twitter account on Jan. 25. The government will act with "all the weight of the law in the cases of abuse by businesses setting prices." Argentines had already been coping with annual inflation estimated at about 28 percent, the highest in Latin America after Venezuela, and currency controls that restricted access to dollars at the official exchange rate. Consumer prices had risen 3 percent in January before the devaluation, and inflation will quicken to more than 30 percent this year, according to Lorenzo Sigaut, the head economist at the Ecolatina research company in Buenos Aires. Investor Confidence "This surprised us all and creates serious uncertainty since you don't know where the exchange rate is going," Sigaut said in a telephone interview. "This is a government that continues to deny inflationary problems but now has to win the battle of expectations." The government is seeking to restore investor confidence by paring back some of its control of the economy, reducing support for the peso and easing some currency controls after international reserves used to pay bondholders fell to a seven-year low. Argentines will be able to begin buying dollars again in accordance with their income at the official rate plus a 20 percent redeemable tax in a reversal of policies installed after Fernandez won re-election in 2011. The central bank raised its yield guidance for a weekly bond auction by six percentage points to about 26 percent on Jan. 24 to create more demand for pesos and try to reduce negative interest rates. Capitanich will provide details of the easing of currency controls today, Economy Minister Axel Kicillof said in an interview with Pagina12 yesterday. EM Rout The peso's plunge forms part of an emerging-market currency rout last week that was triggered in part by a deepening of the political and financial crises in Turkey and Ukraine. The lira sank 4.4 percent in the week, Russia's ruble dropped 2.9 percent and South Africa's rand weakened beyond 11 per dollar for the first time since 2008. In Brazil, the real slumped 2.3 percent to a five-month low on concern that the peso devaluation will erode demand for the country's goods. Argentina was Brazil's third-biggest export market in 2013. Neighboring Chile and Uruguay could also be hurt, Schroder Investment Management said in a note to clients. Capitanich and Kicillof have both said the peso has now reached an "acceptable level" at about 8 per dollar, a signal the central bank may continue to spend reserves to keep the rate in check. Argentines pay as much as 11.7 pesos per dollar on the black market. Sales Increase Retailers "always find a good reason to raise prices; a change in the exchange rate, it's humid outside, any excuse," Kicillof said on public TV yesterday. "They lie and steal." Electronic goods store owner Roberto Campos, 46, raised prices 20 percent last week following the peso's decline. He was skeptical that the government will allow people to buy dollars today, saying it will probably create bureaucratic obstacles in a bid to restrict access. Sales at Campos's store rose about 10 percent in the wake of the devaluation as people bought before prices rose, he said. Business will probably slow in the medium-term as the government continues to let the peso slide, he said. "This is just the beginning," he said while staring at a computer that was updating prices on his goods to reflect the new exchange rate. "Last year there was lots of uncertainty, now the uncertainty is a reality." At a store owned by Chilean retailer SACI Falabella in downtown Buenos Aires, the price of a Whirlpool 80X1 model refrigerator on Jan. 24 had risen 30 percent to 27,499 pesos ($3,437) from 21,199 pesos two days earlier. "The fridge is assembled in Argentina, but all the components are imported," Andre Viera, a salesman at the outlet on Florida Street, said in an interview. "The lady who came in on Wednesday and said she would be back to buy it on Saturday must be suicidal." Source:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-27/argentina-devaluation-triggers-30-whirlpool-price-markup.html | ||||||||||||||||||
| 27 January 2014 - Gold rallies to 2-month high on safe-haven bids Posted: 27 Jan 2014 02:36 AM PST From:http://www.cnbc.com/id/101364544 Gold firmed after rallying to its highest in two months on Monday as equities fell on worries that capital outflows from emerging economies would continue, boosting bullion's safe-haven appeal. Asian shares dived as emerging markets remained under pressure, with the U.S. Federal Reserve poised to continue tapering stimulus and tighter credit conditions in China raising fears of a sharper economic slowdown. (Read more: Gold's 'safety' bid may be capped around $1300) AP Spot gold was steady at $1,268.60 an ounce by 0742 GMT, after earlier hitting a two-month peak of $1,278.01. U.S. gold futures climbed 1 percent, while other precious metals also edged higher. "A poor performance from U.S. equities lifted sentiment and boosted safe-haven demand for gold," said Joyce Liu, an investment analyst at Phillip Futures. (Read more: Huge short squeeze could spike gold) Gold is often seen as an alternative investment to risky assets such as stocks. But Liu warned that a correction was possible given the recent sharp rally in prices and resistance around $1,275. Play Video Gold hits 2-month high Gold and silver are seeing safe haven buying, reports CNBC's Bertha Coombs. Other analysts also said the gold rally could be cut off as the Fed on Tuesday begins a two-day policy meeting in which it is expected to announce another $10 billion reduction in its bond purchases. "Bullion prices at current levels may have largely priced in a $10 billion taper," HSBC analysts said in a note. "However, this does not preclude prices from falling should the Fed announce another round of taper." (Read more: China becomes top gold consumer in 2013) Gold prices climbed to record highs in 2011, helped by a series of stimulus measures meant to bolster a weak U.S. economy. With improvements last year in the U.S. labour and housing markets, the Fed is rolling back its support. Chinese demand With the rally in gold prices, which have gained for five straight weeks, purchases from China - the world's biggest gold consumer - slowed on Monday with volumes lower than Friday's. Premiums for 99.99 percent purity gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange steadied at about $10, after falling earlier to $7. Among other precious metals, platinum gained as South Africa's main platinum miners union was set to resume government-brokered talks with the world's top three producers, in an effort to end a strike. Source:http://www.cnbc.com/id/101364544 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Seminar Simpanan, Pelaburan & Perniagaan Emas Fizikal - Muhamad Azlan Bin Yusuf Posted: 26 Jan 2014 11:44 PM PST
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| 27 January 2014 - Argentina Seen Extending World’s Biggest Currency Decline Posted: 26 Jan 2014 06:46 PM PST From:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-24/argentina-seen-extending-world-s-biggest-currency-decline.html Argentina's peso is poised to extend losses as the government said it will relax controls on the currency, a day after allowing the biggest devaluation since 2002 to arrest a decline in foreign reserves. Argentines will be able to buy dollars for savings in proportion to their income, Cabinet Chief Jorge Capitanich said today in Buenos Aires. The peso's 12 percent plunge yesterday marked the latest effort by President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner to shore up an economy buffeted by inflation running at an estimated 28 percent and reserves at a seven-year low. Without a broader policy change to bolster confidence by restraining spending and raising interest rates, the peso is likely to depreciate further, Eurasia Group Ltd and JPMorgan Chase & Co. said yesterday. The peso dropped as much as 16.5 percent over the last two days to 8.2435 against the U.S. dollar before the central bank intervened in the market by selling $100 million. "Argentina is 'biting the bullet' but without a full set of teeth," Vladimir Werning, an economist at JPMorgan, wrote in a report yesterday. "Insufficient interest rate or fiscal adjustment leaves the devaluation vulnerable to generating more inflation pass-through than achieving real competitiveness gains the government desires." Steepest Decline The intervention helped trim yesterday's losses to 9.4 percent from the central bank's closing price Jan. 22, the biggest daily decline since the financial crisis that followed the country's record $95 billion default in late 2001. The peso closed at 7.8825 per dollar, and changed hands in the illegal street market at 13.06 pesos per dollar, according to Buenos Aires daily Ambito Financiero, which tracks the rate. "If the bank hadn't stepped in I don't know where it would have gone -- surely 10 or 11," said Francisco Diaz Mayer, a currency trader at ABC Mercado de Cambio in Buenos Aires. The central bank has spent a net of $5.9 billion in the last year to control the peso's decline. This year, the peso has weakened 17 percent against the U.S. dollar, more than any currency in the world. In the same period of 2013, the peso depreciated less than 1 percent. Dollar Purchases The central bank didn't sell dollars on Jan. 22, allowing the peso to drop 3.6 percent, according to the bank's prices. Capitanich told reporters yesterday the government was allowing the market to adjust prices. "We've decided to authorize the purchase of dollars for people according to their declared income level," he said today. "We believe that our administered currency policy has reached an acceptable level of convergence for our economic objectives." Government dollar bonds tumbled an average 3.8 percent yesterday, bringing the year-to-date losses to 10.5 percent, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. That's the worst among more than 50 emerging market economies. Reserves have tumbled at a rate of $1.1 billion a month over the past year to a seven-year low of $29.3 billion. Energy imports increased 23 percent to $11.4 billion in 2013 while exports fell 24 percent to $5.3 billion. Argentine tourists traveling abroad spent $630 million more than foreign visitors to Argentina in the first 11 months of last year. Restricting Access In the first three quarters of 2013, the nation posted a current account deficit of $1.27 billion, the largest for that period since its economic crisis. Since 2010, Fernandez has used central bank funds to pay foreign debt. Argentina, which remains locked out of capital markets as it battles owners of defaulted bonds in U.S. courts, has set aside a record $9.9 billion to pay foreign debt obligations in this year's budget. Since her re-election in 2011, Fernandez has restricted access to foreign currency, including a ban on most dollar purchases by individuals, to stem capital outflows and shore up reserves. Argentina's trade surplus narrowed 27 percent to $9 billion in 2013 as fuel imports rose and soy prices dropped 28 percent, while producers withheld stocks of the oilseed waiting for the peso to weaken further. The government may allow the peso to decline more in coming days, said Hernan Yellati, head of research at BancTrust & Co. "I don't think that level is written in stone, 8 pesos per dollar," Yellati said in a telephone interview from Miami. "It is the exchange rate that's going to prevail only for now. Tomorrow maybe the central bank is going to withdraw again." Spurring Inflation While devaluing the peso will accelerate inflation and curb growth in the short-term it will close the gap between the two exchange rates and shore up reserves, said Eric Ritondale, senior economist at Buenos Aires-based research company Econviews, who expects the economy to contract in the first quarter as purchasing power weakens due to declining salaries. Annual inflation quickened to 28.4 percent in December, according to private estimates published by opposition lawmakers. Inflation was 11 percent, according to the government, which plans to introduce a new index next month after being censured by the International Monetary Fund for misreporting economic data. "It's better to do this now than never," Ritondale said in a phone interview. "In the medium term this will have a positive effect." Interest Rates It's key that the central bank complement the devaluation with an increase in short-term interest rates to boost demand for the peso, said Jorge Mariscal, regional chief investment officer for emerging markets at UBS Wealth Management. Argentina's benchmark deposit rate, known as the badlar, has fallen 0.62 percentage points this year to 21 percent. "This is what the forces of supply and demand have been asking for some time, so the depreciation of the exchange rate in Argentina is part of the beginning of the solution." Mariscal, whose firm oversees $968 billion, said in a telephone interview from Washington. "It will really test the skills and independence of the central bank preventing this from becoming a downward spiral." Source:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-24/argentina-seen-extending-world-s-biggest-currency-decline.html | ||||||||||||||||||
| 27 January 2014 - Contagion Spreads in Emerging Markets as Crises Grow Posted: 26 Jan 2014 06:44 PM PST From:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-24/contagion-spreads-in-emerging-markets-as-crises-grow.html The worst selloff in emerging-market currencies in five years is beginning to reveal the extent of the fallout from the Federal Reserve's tapering of monetary stimulus, compounded by political and financial instability. The Turkish lira plunged to a record and South Africa's rand fell yesterday to a level weaker than 11 per dollar for the first time since 2008. Argentine policy makers devalued the peso by reducing support in the foreign-exchange market, allowing the currency to drop the most in 12 years to an unprecedented low. Investors are losing confidence in some of the biggest developing nations, extending the currency-market rout triggered last year when the Fed first signaled it would scale back stimulus. While Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa were the engines of global growth following the financial crisis in 2008, emerging markets now pose a threat to world financial stability. Opinion: Look Out Below, Follow-Through Edition "The current environment is potentially very toxic for emerging markets," Eamon Aghdasi, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in New York, said in a phone interview yesterday. "You have two very troubling things: uncertainty about the Fed policy, combined with concerns about growth, particularly in China. It's difficult to justify that it's time to go out and buy emerging markets at the moment." Global Declines Developing-nation currencies sold off after a report from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics indicated yesterday that China's manufacturing may contract for the first time in six months, adding to concern that growth is losing momentum. The declines were part of a broader slide in global markets today, with stocks in Asia, Europe and the U.S. tumbling. Yields on 10-year German bunds slipped to an 11-week low, while the yen, considered by investors as a haven, rose versus all 16 major counterparts tracked by Bloomberg. Currencies of commodity-exporting countries that depend on Chinese demand sank, with the rand plunging 0.9 percent, following yesterday's 1.1 percent decline. Brazil's real fell 0.1 percent while Chile's peso sank 0.3 percent after decreasing 1.2 percent yesterday. Argentina's peso fell 12 percent yesterday, marking its biggest decline since a devaluation in 2002. It sank an additional 1.5 percent today to 8.0014 per dollar. The central bank pared dollar sales aimed at propping up the peso to preserve international reserves that have fallen to a seven-year low. Today the central bank said it would lift two-year-old currency controls and allow the purchase of dollars for savings starting next week. The peso traded at around 13 per dollar in the black market yesterday. Venezuela Reserves In Venezuela, the government devalued its currency for airline tickets and incoming foreign direct investment on Jan. 22. International reserves are at a 10-year low. The Turkish central bank's first unscheduled intervention in more than two years wasn't enough to stop the lira from setting a record low today. Investors are speculating the central bank's efforts to prop up the lira by burning through foreign-exchange reserves will prove futile without raising interest rates. The lira plunged to a record 2.336 per dollar and also declined to an all-time intraday low of 3.2069 per euro. Turkey's central bank refrained from raising benchmark rates this week, fueling concern that it will be difficult to finance current-account deficits. Turkey holds about $33 billion in foreign reserves, excluding deposits from commercial banks, only enough to cover 1 1/2 months of imports, according to Citigroup Inc. 'Bad Storm' "It's a bad storm," Neil Azous, the founder of Rareview Macro LLC, a Stamford, Connecticut-based advisory and research firm, said in a phone interview yesterday. "Their net foreign-exchange reserves are dwindling pretty fast. They're definitely in the danger zone. If you're a money manager, the responsible action is to take some measures to reduce risk." The International Monetary Fund predicts that the growth advantage of emerging markets over advanced economies will shrink this year to the smallest since 2001. The Washington-based group kept its expansion forecast for developing countries this year at 5.1 percent on Jan. 21, while raising the outlook for advanced economies to 2.2 percent, from the 2 percent estimated in October. China is struggling to contain $4.8 trillion in shadow-banking debt, raising concern about the growth outlook for a country that buys everything from Chile's copper to Brazil's iron ore. A corruption investigation is embroiling Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's cabinet, while deadly protests in Ukraine and Thailand are eroding confidence in the political stability of developing nations. 'Gradual Erosion' "The gradual erosion of sentiment for the EMs, owing to the perception that several EM economies or countries are 'on the brink,' simply made the run on reserves in Argentina and the poor China data the 'straws that broke the camel's back'," Thierry Albert Wizman, a strategist at Macquarie Group Ltd. in New York, wrote in an e-mail to clients yesterday. A Bloomberg customized gauge tracking 20 emerging-market currencies fell 0.4 percent to 89.8 today, the lowest level since April 2009. The index has tumbled 9.7 percent over the past 12 months, bigger than any annual decline since it slid 15 percent in 2008. Fatal Protests Ukraine's hryvnia has slumped as Parliament planned to hold an emergency session after anti-government protests led to fatalities this week. The currency fell as low as 8.48 per dollar, the weakest since 2009, before reversing losses to gain 0.1 to 8.435 per dollar. South Africa's rand tumbled as much as 1.8 percent to 11.1949 per dollar today on concern a strike at the world's biggest platinum mines would dent the country's exports. The selloff in emerging-market currencies started in May, when the Fed signaled it may pare the monthly asset purchases that had helped fuel investment in developing nations. Yields on U.S. Treasuries rose in response. "In an environment of rising U.S. rates, the market is quickly finding out who has been swimming naked," Dirk Willer, a Latin America strategist at Citigroup, the second-largest currency trader, wrote in a client note. He said it's "not unreasonable" for the Argentine peso to fall to 14 per dollar. Buying Opportunities The recent weakness has created buying opportunities for some emerging markets with stronger economic prospects, according to Marcela Meirelles, a Latin America sovereign strategist at TCW Group Inc. "This selloff will create eventually good buying opportunities of those EM credits with strong fundamentals and there is still no shortage of them around the world," Meirelles said in an e-mailed reply to questions. HSBC recommends clients buy the Mexican peso against the Chilean peso, saying Mexico's currency will benefit from expansion in the U.S. as efforts to open up the energy industry to outside investment boost its southern neighbor's long-term growth potential. While differentiation is important, the end of China's "investment and export boom" may still put emerging-market currencies on a declining trend, according to Morgan Stanley. "We continue to see the risks surrounding China's macro trajectory as having a negative impact on EM," Rashique Rahman, the New York-based co-head of foreign-exchange and emerging-market strategy at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note yesterday. "As capital costs rise and investment slows, commodity prices should come under pressure, boding poorly for economies linked to China's old growth model." Brazil's Real Morgan Stanley has a "reduce" rating on emerging-market currencies, while recommending selling the Russian ruble against the dollar. Brazil's real fell to a five-month low of 2.4327 per dollar today and has lost 28 percent over the past two years. Brazil should return to the policies of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to boost growth, tame rising consumer prices and attract foreign investment, Pacific Investment Management Co. said yesterday. "Valuations are attractive, but unless an effective policy mix is restored, the outlook for order in Brazil's financial markets is less certain," Michael Gomez, the co-head of emerging markets, said in a report published on the fund's website yesterday. Pimco Chief Investment Officer Bill Gross said last week that Brazil was no longer a preferred market. The comment came more than a decade after the firm bought the country's bonds as they plunged before presidential elections in 2002, a bet that proved prescient. "The market is punishing those countries with bad policies and politics," Bhanu Baweja, the head of emerging-market cross-asset strategy at UBS AG, said by phone from London. "There isn't panic, but we are not finished yet. There's no reason to buy emerging for now." Source:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-24/contagion-spreads-in-emerging-markets-as-crises-grow.html |
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