13 January 2014 -New Gold Price Bull Market Cycle Has Started

Posted: 13 Jan 2014 02:43 AM PST

From:http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43929.html?

2013 was one of the worst years for gold in a generation and the strangest part of it is that this loss came during a time in what should have been a banner year for gold.

When the Fed launched its QE1 and QE2 programs, gold posted huge gains but with QE3, we only had a brief rally in late 2012, it's been all downhill for there.

The price of gold over the last year highlights just how much Europe has become a powerful driver behind gold vs. the US which has historically been the main mover. When the European debt crisis started a few years ago, people fearing a financial meltdown in Europe put a lot of their money into gold as it was the save haven of choice.

However, with financial and political risk in Europe subsiding, we have seen money leave gold and move into other markets, hence the big outflows from gold ETF's.

Other factors that have dragged on gold over the last year include falling jewelry demand, the loss of its role as an inflation hedge with deflation becoming more of a concern in some areas, also tax increases on gold imports in India, and the supposedly improving economy in the US. All these contributed to the selling of gold.

Gold and gold stocks crashed last year in the summer. They have since been going through a stage one base. This suggests that 2014 will mark the start of a new bull market for gold, gold mining stocks and commodities. The commodity sector as a hole should be your focus in the coming months if you want to be able to invest in something for longer than a few days or weeks and make a huge amount of money be sure to check out my gold newsletter.

Gold Market Traders & Manipulators Provide Contrarian Bullish Outlook

Gold market traders and manipulators like some of the commercial banks/brokerage firms have been verbally slamming gold, and it turns out many are not as negative as lead us to believe…

Goldman Sachs we all know are the biggest hypocrites. While advising clients to sell gold in the second quarter of 2013, they bought a stunning 3.7 million shares of the GLD. And when Venezuela needed to raise cash and sell its gold, guess who jumped in to handle the transaction? Yup, GS! So while they tell everyone to sell gold, they are accumulating as much as they can without being obvious.

There is a lot more reasons and fundamentals to be bullish on commodities and gold, but that is not the point of this technical based report.

Weekly CRB Commodity Index – Bull Market Cycle About To Start

Taking a quick look at the CB index which is a basket of commodities, it looks as though a breakout above its down trend line will trigger a new bull market in the commodity sector. While this has not yet happened it looks s though it may happen in the next few months.

On stock market that recently broke out of a Stage 1 basing pattern (new bull market) is the Toronto Stock Exchange. This index is heavily weighted with commodity based stocks. I talk about this more in my new long-term algorithmic trading newsletter.

In this report I want to show you some interesting charts that are pointing to a new gold bull market cycle which looks to be starting.

The chart below of the gold miner's bullish percent index is often misread by many traders and trade off its information incorrectly. Many for example think this index is based on stocks trading above a moving average which is no correct.

How a bullish percent index is calculated is based on Point & Figure buy and sell signals with each individual stock within the sector and in our case the gold minders ETF GDX.

Gold prices peaked in 20111 at $1923 an ounce when the gold mining stocks index was above 80%. Why is this important? Because gold stocks typically lead the price of gold in both directions, tops and bottoms.

As of today we have the reverse situation with the bullish percent index at 13% and showing bullish divergence from that of gold stocks. This is an early signal that the new gold bull market cycle is turning up and it should not be overlooked.

Also we see the 5th and final Elliott wave pattern forming and we could once again whiteness another multi year rally in the price of gold.

Gold stocks have not yet broken out to start a rally as you can see in the chart below. But the important thing to note is that the daily chart has formed a mini Stage 1 Basing patterns and could breakout this week to kick start a multi month/year rally.

Gold & Gold Stock Bull Market Conclusion:

If you have been following me for a while, you know I don't try to be a hero and pick tops or bottoms. We all know that strategy is a losing one over the long run.

Since 2011 I have been a very dormant gold trader. Why? Because the price and technical indicators topped out and confirmed a massive consolidation or bear market was in motion.

With gold, gold stocks and precious metals about to start a new bull market, it is time to get back to trading gold and gold stocks.

Source:http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43929.html?

13 January 2014 - 非农表现疲软黄金白银强劲反弹

Posted: 13 Jan 2014 02:39 AM PST

From:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-01-13/161372298.html

和讯特约

　　摘要：现货黄金周五纽约时段盘中大幅度上涨,周一早间在突破站稳前期高点后,继续试探黄金价格1250附近的压力,目前仍旧在相对高处进行整固,而现货白银也是因日内公布的美国12月非农就业人数仅增长7.4万人，远逊于预期，令美联储进一步缩减QE的预期大幅降温后,展开强劲反弹走势,目前仍保持良好的行情发展。

　　行情描述：周五现货黄金开盘1227.35，日低1226.90，日高1248.91，收盘1246.99，幅度1.57%。现货白银开盘3844，日高3973，日低3842，收盘3948，幅度2.60%。

　　基本面分析：

　　美国劳工部1月10日公布的数据显示，美国去年12月非农就业人数增长7.4万人，远低于预期的增长19.7万人，创2011年1月以来最小增幅。失业率为6.7%。11月非农就业人数上修至增长24.1万人。美国12月份失业率6.7%，好于预期的7.0%。令人失望的非农就业报告令市场对美国经济复苏的强度感到怀疑，同时也令人质疑美联储是否会进一步采取行动缩减量化宽松规模。数据公布之后，现货黄金快速上涨至1243.00，而目前已经到达1250附近.同时白银上涨，周一早盘触及近期高点。

　　美国商品期货交易委员会周五(1月10日)发布的报告显示，截至1月7日当周，投机者持有的黄金净多头增加6,664手，至净多头38,887手，显示投机者对现货黄金继续看多的意愿有所增强。

　　结合非农和其他数据,笔者注意到 2014年初黄金价格的走势。从反弹力度上来讲将会加强，因中国此时的实物金需求强劲，但涨势会比较有限，前期高点在突破之后，若能站稳后市将进一步冲击高点，另外经济和货币政策方面仍需要密切留意美联储的更新情况。同时全球各大央行未来数年预计仍是黄金的净买家，关于各国黄金抛售的规定预计不太会发生改变。这对于现货黄金和现货白银都是利好的因素。

　　数据显示，全球最大的黄金ETF——SPDR在少见的增持之后，随着现货黄金价格的宽幅震荡,近期的持仓未有明显的举动,不过我们可以看到基金在截至13日的持仓中，其持仓量为793.12吨 ,此前曾小幅度减持1.5吨,黄金ETF持仓量维持在低位，这显示该基金看淡现货黄金后市.而白银ETF截止到12日,在1月4日增持44.91,而目前持有9954.40,总体来看，面临新年的节日氛围，贵金属基金市场情绪仍偏向于谨慎。

　　技术面分析：

　　目前现货黄金报于1248,周一亚盘的走势表现仍展现出多头力量的强劲,而周五时段黄金价格在白盘时段表现出来的回升走势,受阻1238后出现的回撤,基本上区间调整的意愿走势很完美,不过在非农数据公布后,黄金价格转而上行,突破并进一步站稳1248后,后市的高点只是时间问题,不过今日消息面较为清淡,走势上仍将延续技术性修复为主,从当前的行情来看,回撤稍作蓄势对于此后的发展将更为的有利,所以操作上,稳健的投资人可以继续等待。

　　黄金操作策略: 1267近空，止损5美金，盈利目标1262，第二盈利目标1252;1244附近做多，止损5美金，盈利目标1250，上破持有1267(谨慎)。

　　支撑位：1244 1236 1224

　　压力为：1250 1262 1267

　　现货白银报于3964,白银价格表现的较为温和,走势上仍受限在前期压力线下方,日内仍需进一步做蓄势。

　　白银操作策略:激进者3930附近多，止损3890，盈利3970，破位持有4000;4000附近做空，止损4040，盈利3930,，突破持有3900(谨慎)。

　　人民币报价支撑位：3960 3930 3820

　　人民币报价压力位：3968 4008 4060

Source:http://gold.hexun.com/2014-01-13/161372298.html

13 January 2014 -New Gold Price Bull Market Cycle Has Started

13 January 2014 -New Gold Price Bull Market Cycle Has Started

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