How To know If The Gold Bull Market Has Ended | Gold Silver Worlds

How To know If The Gold Bull Market Has Ended | Gold Silver Worlds
The Most Important Gold Chart in the World - Daily Resource Hunter
Bitcoin an Almost Exact Fit to Gold's Historical Chart « The Bitcoin ...

Posted: 11 Dec 2013 12:35 PM PST

In this article, author Peter de Graaf provides a "checklist" with 11 signs that will reveal the end of the gold bull market. He explains based on several charts that we are not even close to that point. (chart courtesy Stockcharts.com).

Central banks will have stopped their money printing madness.
The US Federal Government will have balanced its budget.
China will have invested 20% of its trading surplus in gold.
The US CPI will have peaked at a rate above 10%.
The public in the USA, Canada, Australia and Europe will have bought gold with their savings, including a goodly portion of their tax free savings.
The public in India and China will have turned from buyers to sellers.
Sellers of gold will have a currency available to them that offers stability.
Financial headlines will have featured stories of gold mining stocks that rose from pennies to a hundred dollars. (In 1975 Lion Mines could be purchased at 0.07c a share – in 1980 the share price was $380! Wharf Resources traded at 0.40c in 1975 – by 1980 the price had risen to $560).
TV screens will have featured lineups of buyers at coin shops.
Crude oil will have reached a record high price.
Silver will have outperformed gold on a percentage basis.

gold price chart january december 2013 investing

Featured is the daily bar chart for gold bullion expressed in US dollars. Price is breaking out from beneath five weeks of resistance. The pattern is a bullish falling wedge. A closing price above the blue arrow will confirm a major bottom at the $1200 level. A subsequent breakout at the green arrow turns the trend bullish. The supporting indicators are turning positive. Our proprietary Gold Direction Indicator bottomed at 19% on December 3^rd and closed at 51% on December 10^th.

gold price chart 2001 till 2013 investing

Here is a longer-term look at the current gold bull market, with a log scale chart. Notice the rising channel. The supporting indicators have turned positive, including the important Accumulation/Distribution line.

"The History of the US FED:

Create a problem.
Solve the problem.
Get praise for solving the problem.
Make sure the solution leads to the next problem
Back to #1." …..Dr. Gary North.

gold dow jones ratio 2013 investing

Featured is the index that compares gold bullion to the DOW Jones Industrials. The index is trying to bottom, and a closing price above the blue arrow will be the first sign of confirmation. A breakout at the green arrow will convince a lot of investors to move funds from the stock market into gold. The supporting indicators are positive.

gold US dollar ratio 2013 investing

Featured is the daily bar chart for gold expressed in foreign currencies. Price is breaking out here as well, and volume was very heavy (green arrow). The supporting indicators have been showing bullish divergence and now they are turning positive. A breakout at the blue arrow turns the trend bullish.

gold commitment of traders 2012 till 2013 investing

This chart courtesy Cotpricecharts.com shows the 'net short' position of commercial gold traders fell for the fifth consecutive week, to 21,000 compared to 28,000 the week before. As a percentage of open interest the number is a bullish 6%. This compares to 5.5% on July 2^nd. That was just before gold rose from $118t6 to $1435.

GDX gold miners chart april december 2013 investing

Featured is GDX, the gold and silver producers ETF. Price is breaking out from a falling wedge pattern (green box). The supporting indicators have been showing bullish divergence and are now turning positive. The increase in volume is indicative of strong hands buying from weak hands. A breakout at the blue arrow will confirm the bottom, while a breakout at the green arrow turns the trend bullish.

gold imports china hongkong 2001 till 2013 investing

This chart courtesy Goldchartsrus.com shows the massive amount of gold that is moving into China via Hong Kong. As long as this trend continues, the fundamentals for gold are positive, and the bull market lives on.

silver price chart June december 2013 investing

Featured is the daily bar chart for silver. Price broke out from a bullish falling wedge formation on December 9^th, and confirmed the breakout the next day. The supporting indicators are turning positive with lots of room to rise higher. A breakout at the blue arrow will confirm a large ABC bottom, and a breakout at the green arrow turns the trend bullish.

US Geological Society 2010 report: "Silver will be the first element in the periodic table that would become extinct."

silver commitment of traders 2012 till 2013 investing

This chart courtesy Cotpricecharts.com shows the 'net short' position of commercial silver traders slipped to 12,000, compared to 16,000 the week before. As a percentage of open interest the number is a bullish 9%.

Peter Degraaf is an online stocks and bullion investor. He has over 50 years of investing experience. He publishes a daily report for his many subscribers. To receive a sample copy of a report, you are advised to send him an Email via www.pdegraaf.com

The Most Important Gold Chart in the World - Daily Resource Hunter

Posted: 10 Dec 2013 05:27 AM PST

Ever since gold broke below critical support back in April, you've been inundated with statistics, price targets and countless charts. There's certainly no shortage of gold analysis these days.

But today, I want you to forget everything you've read about gold over the past eight months. Forget about production statistics, inflation guesses, or jewelry demand in Asia. Heck you can even discard the annotations on every other gold chart you've seen this year…

The most important gold chart in the world right now is the long-term look at the Dow/gold ratio– the Dow Jones Industrial Average priced in gold.

Performance Counts Gold Vs. Dow

Today, it will cost you about 13 ounces of gold to buy the Dow. That's a long way off the almost 45-ounce price tag on the Dow back in 1999…

This chart goes back far enough to see the very end of the massive gold spike in 1980, followed by the Dow regaining its footing before beginning a 20-year run. It's pretty obvious what happens when the Dow finally breaks higher after years of decline versus the yellow metal.

"Priced in gold, the Dow had been in a massive 13-year bear market," explain the analysts over at Chart of the Day. "However, back in the summer of 2011, gold peaked while the Dow continued to rally. While the Dow (priced in gold) is currently well-off its dot-com record highs, it has been surging as of late. The current rally has resulted in a break above resistance of its latest downtrend channel as well as new post-financial crisis highs."

What we're seeing right now is a massive performance shift. After more than a decade in the driver's seat, gold is giving up ground to stocks.

A change in trend is brewing. Don't get caught on the wrong side of the market.

What About Gold Miners?

Gold's looking bad. But miners are looking much worse.

I've written to you about the temptations to "bottom pick" the miners on multiple occasions this year. Sure, it might work for a quick trade or two. But any long-term bets on this group remain out of the question, as far as I'm concerned.

Yes, miner sentiment is absolutely terrible right now. And that can be a contrarian signal to buy. However, there are simply too many factors holding miners down right now to make it worth the risk. In fact, there are still plenty of investors who remain "in love" with these stocks, according to Frank Zorrilla, founder and chief investment officer of Zor Capital.

"The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF has now slid 55% YTD to a five-year low," Zorilla notes, "yet the fund has nearly doubled in size to $6.8B, as investors have added $2.5B despite the dismal performance."

Yikes. Looks like some investors just love the pain…

Zorilla continues:

"Based on this information one can argue that the miners have a long way to go before they form a true bottom if one believes that bottoms are formed when there's despair. That does not mean that they won't have sharp rallies every now and then but its obvious that there is a very big love affair with the miners even though they have done nothing but disappoint."

Gold's been incredibly volatile lately. Do yourself a favor and avoid the miner ETFs on the long side. Things will probably get worse before they get better…

Best,

Greg Guenthner

Greg Guenthner uses his experience as a former journalist to dig up the hard-to-find headlines that could lead to big gains for your micro-cap portfolio. Greg offers his readers the scoop on topics ranging from alternative energies to biotechnology, digging up the best penny stock opportunities before they're discovered by the mainstream media. On top of contributing to Penny Sleuth, Greg also heads Penny Stock Fortunes and Bulletin Board Elite.

View articles by Greg Guenthner

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Tags: Gold Chart, gold dow, gold performance, gold trends

Bitcoin an Almost Exact Fit to Gold's Historical Chart « The Bitcoin ...

Posted: 11 Dec 2013 10:26 AM PST

news.goldseek.com / By Jeff Desjardins / Wednesday, 11 December 2013

It is often said that history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

Bitcoin, in just nine months, has done something absolutely tremendous in that respect. While increasing in parabolic fashion, it also managed to match up exactly with the 40 year gold chart – even to the most recent correction.

Putting the two charts side by side is simply eerie:

Bitcoin price vs. historical gold chart

In 1980, the gold price peaked at $850 USD during an inflationary environment where the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market, the Soviets intervened in Afghanistan, and the Iranian revolution was taking place. In March 2013, Bitcoin began to rally because of the Cyprus bank holiday and subsequent haircut of depositors.

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