9 December 2013 - 修成才：中国经济平稳向好将为金银提供永久活力

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 02:19 AM PST

From:http://gold.hexun.com/2013-12-09/160425655.html

上周五晚，美国最新公布的经济数据向好，非农就业人数增20万，而失业率降至7%。这本是美国经济持续向好的直接表现，欧美股市场全线上涨，但美元只是因此而获得短暂的市场追捧，盘中快速冲高后又继续回落，维持疲弱整理态势。与之变动密切相关的金银价格在剧烈的下探后急速回升，波澜不惊中继续"蓄积能量"。由此可见，金银价格之前的低迷表现充分反应了全球经济向好的预期，在引发市场高度紧张的预期得到充分验证之后，金银价格反而不再反应投资者悲观的情绪，而是重回到独立的"投资者优化"进程中。

　　本周周一早开盘之后的国内金银市场表现较为积极，金银价格稍做修整后强势反弹，表明美国经济数据向好信息在得到确认之后的市场投资预期再无"压力"。原油价格表现坚挺，稳定在97美元每桶上方。随着西方圣诞节消费高峰的临近以及中国春节假期的年底消费高潮，显示市场对以消费需求拉动的金银市场复苏充满期待和信心。

　　中国11月CPI同比增3%，环比降0.1%，11月PPI同比下降1.4%，环比持平。这一组数据显示中国经济整体复苏平稳，中国央行在控通胀稳物价上的货币政策操作合理，且达到审慎调节之后的宏观经济平稳运行的目标。而企业生产积极性也有进一步恢复，但去库存和消化过剩产能还有延续的空间。

　　由于中国央行从货币政策层面上继续保持利率水平不变和偏高的商业银行存准率，并没有进行过度的货币行政性干预，使得中国未来的通胀预期在市场自发调节的基础上，将较长时间处于健康水平。由此可见，中国用市场价格的调节功能来实现中国经济增长方式的转型正稳步推进，中国经济正在恢复健康。

　　中国整体经济的平稳发展，将积极和主动的促使全球供需平衡的调节，有利于全球经济的稳步复苏，更对金银市场工业和消费需求的稳步回升提供了长久动力。

　　研究世界经济发展的历史，革命性的创新以及对新时代的把控，是一个国家或地区占领全球经济霸主地位的根本因素。然而，从黄金——这个世界上唯一永恒不变的财富资产——的聚集历程来看，不难发现任何一个称霸世界经济的国家或地区，其特定的历史时期都拥有高度的黄金聚集能力。如古希腊、古罗马，再如14——19世纪前的欧洲各国，20世界的美国。进入21世纪的亚洲显然成为全球黄金的最大聚集区，而中国市场以13亿人口的强大需求，更是最具潜力的未来"黄金之都"。因此，中国经济平稳向好，将为未来金银市场的高速发展和扩张提供永久活力。

　　就金银市场短期表现来看，原油价格的坚挺和与长期持续低迷的金银价格形成鲜明对比。我们知道原油价格高企不仅仅反应了供需调节作用下的全球经济复苏向好，更是显示全球性消费需求在稳步回升，从而增加了未来通胀走高的市场预期。市场经营和消费活力的提高，更会引发保值需求者重回金银市场配置金银资产，这会在一定程度上抵消掉近期金银市场的短期悲观情绪。因此，本周的金银价格在多空双方悲喜情绪的反复转变过程中，将维持在当前水平上震荡反复，并受乐观情绪的逐渐增加而缓慢推高金银价格的实际重心。预测金银价格有进一步反弹的空间。

Source:http://gold.hexun.com/2013-12-09/160425655.html

9 December 2013 - Gold will always shine

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 02:15 AM PST

From:http://www.arabianbusiness.com/gold-will-always-shine-529952.html?

A recent visit to the gold market at Al Batha souk in downtown old Riyadh convinced me that the female appetite for the ultimate yellow metal remains extraordinarily high.

Shops were packed with lustrous gold Bedouin jewellery, necklaces, sparkling rings, and bracelets in different designs, offering an impossible choice between the 22K and 21K jewellery and the 24K (99.99 percent purest gold) ingots.

Let's face it: women have always loved to wear gold jewellery for its natural beauty and the glow it gives to a woman's face and the glamour it adds to her appearance. But it isn't just women who crave gold — from ancient times, gold has been of central importance to mankind.

Its allure lies in its uniqueness; only gold combines beauty and rarity with the properties of durability (gold does not rust, tarnish or corrode) and workability (an ounce of gold can be stretched into a wire 80km long).

Gold also has a multitude of uses in industry. For example, its excellent conductivity makes it useful in circuit boards. Considered beneficial for health for centuries, gold has many uses in medicine today.

It is even incorporated in luxury face creams. And gold has great symbolic value, not only as a symbol of status and power but also as a symbol of excellence.

The shiny yellow metal has always been central to the lives of women (and men) not only in Arabia but in the whole Middle East and Asia, in particular India and China, where it is highly treasured as a safe haven for investment and a means of asset protection and payment rather than as just a luxury.

More than 3 billion people in those areas prefer to accumulate wealth in gold jewellery or ingots rather than in bank deposits. Gold jewellery also holds traditional and cultural connotations for those regions playing an essential role in weddings, dowries and gift-giving.

For centuries gold was the basis for monetary exchange value until in the 20th century the gold standard was replaced by fiat currency (money backed by government decree only).

Current gold prices continue to fluctuate as a result of global inflation, interest rates and currencies, consumer spending, market risks, short-term investment flows and supply-related drivers.

The US monetary stimulus pushed gold to a record $1,920.30 per troy ounce in September 2011, but the price has been falling since and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicts a fall to an average of $1,483 for 2013, and a further decline to $1,403 in 2014.

EIU estimate that by mid-2015, the gold price will be under $1,350. As most economies are recovering, many investors now prefer to invest in riskier assets like stocks.

Other projections, however, suggest that gold will increase in price because of factors such as the possibility of a gold mining crisis, the Chinese government's persistence in amassing gold over the last few years, India's excessive demand for gold to manufacture jewellery and the demand for gold as a store of value against inflation especially as the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank continue buying more debt and printing more money.

Demand is still high for the precious metal in emerging markets. The EIU's data explains that while global gold consumption declined in 2013 by 8.9 percent to 3,487 tonnes, it foresees a rebound in demand to 3,965 tonnes in 2014.

The latest dive in gold prices of around 10 percent on 15 April has stimulated greater gold jewellery consumption. The EIU's data indicates an increase of global gold jewellery consumption from 1,895 tonnes in 2012 to 2,108 tonnes in 2013 and it is projected to reach 2,183 tonnes in 2014.

India and China lead the market as the biggest consumers of gold, clinging to it as the safest long-term investment. They also account for almost 60 percent of demand for gold jewellery in 2013.

India is expected to show demand of 651 tonnes in 2013 and a growth in gold jewellery consumption of 15 percent, with consumption of gold reaching almost 700 tonnes in 2014.

However, a slowing to 7 percent growth is expected in 2014 as result of the Indian government suppressing gold imports and imposing a tax of 10 percent import duty as a way to stop the rupee falling against the dollar.

As for China, its gold consumption was 609 tonnes during 2013 and will reach 646 tonnes in 2014.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), the Middle East recorded an increase in total consumer demand from 49 tonnes during the second quarter of 2012 to 67.4 tonnes in the same period of 2013, worth $3.065bn.

The demand for gold jewellery increased from 42 tonnes during the same periods to 55.7 tonnes, worth $2.535bn.

Turkey is one of the biggest gold consumers in the Middle East, with demand increasing from 70 tonnes in 2012 to 73 tonnes in 2013 and due to reach 75 tonnes in 2014, according to the EIU.

Saudi Arabia also has one of largest gold markets: 43 tonnes in 2012, 48 tonnes in 2013 and an anticipated 50 tonnes in 2014. The demand for gold jewellery also increased from 15.3 tonnes in the second quarter of last year to 18.8 tonnes in the same period this year, valued at $855m.

The United Arab Emirates is another important market in the Middle East where gold consumption rose from 42 tonnes in 2012, to 45 tonnes in 2013 and will be hitting 47 tonnes in 2014, the EIU projects.

Gold jewellery consumption increased from 14.2 tonnes in the second quarter of last year to 18.8 tonnes in the second quarter of 2013, with a value of $855m.

The Kaloti Jewellery Group, one of the largest gold and precious metals refiners and trading houses, will complete a new refinery in Dubai by late 2014 that will have the capacity to produce 1,400 tonnes of gold and 600 tonnes of silver.

In Europe, gold consumption has greatly decreased because of austerity measures adopted in reply to the debt and currency crisis as Europeans experience high unemployment, an increasing poverty gap and social unrest.

Demand, which is mainly for bars and coins rather than jewellery, is now much lower than in Asia and the Middle East.

Although private consumers in Asia and the Middle East have a huge appetite for gold, their central banks hold only small quantities in relation to their total currency reserves as most currencies are pegged to the dollar and they prefer to diversify their reserve holdings.

While the highest government gold holdings are in the US (8,133.5 tonnes — 70 percent of reserves), Germany (3,390.6 tonnes — 66 percent), Italy (2,451.8 tonnes — 65 percent) and France (2,435.4 tonnes — 65 percent), China with 1,054.1 tonnes has only 1 percent in gold reserve, and India with 557.7 tonnes has only 7 percent.

In the Middle East, Turkey with 441.5 tonnes has 14 percent; Saudi Arabia (322.9 tonnes — 2 percent); Lebanon (286.8 tonnes — 22 percent);Kuwait (79.0 tonnes — 9 percent); Qatar (12.4 tonnes — 1.4 percent); and Bahrain (4.7 tonnes — 3.7 percent).

Increasing demand for gold jewellery in Asian countries should continue as a result of their positive economic development, but perhaps women who love gold everywhere should welcome recent news that Australian scientists have discovered that gold particles found in eucalyptus leaves could help miners identify where deeply buried deposits might be, saving time, money and resources hunting for this precious yellow metal.

Source:http://www.arabianbusiness.com/gold-will-always-shine-529952.html?