06 December 2013 - 金银在低迷中蓄积能量

Posted: 06 Dec 2013 01:11 AM PST

From: http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2013/12/06162316288222.shtml

本周金银价格整体表现低迷，但依然维持在周初下探之后的低点上方运行。虽然原油价格在本周有明显反弹走势，但对金银价格的实际提振作用不大。美元在本周并没有成为压制金银价格的主要因素，因为美元同样也表现低迷。

由此可见，我们之前判断的美元对金银价格的影响在逐渐减弱，以及金银价格走势异常独立，是正确的分析思路。在对本月剩下时间的分析中，依然要保持这样一个整体思路。

欧洲两大央行在昨晚的议息会议中决定保持利率水平不变，向市场传递出对欧洲经济整体复苏的信息。同时美国公布的经济数据同样好于市场预期，这又让市场对经济复苏不稳的担忧有所减少。但这样的"好兆头"在资本市场中的反应确实反向的。

欧美股票市场全线回调，虽然下跌幅度很小，但也更反应出当前资本市场对于全球经济整体向好之后，各国央行可能会积极进行流动性回收的可能。如美国可能提前收紧QE的预期又被加强了。这成为对造成金银价格继续位置低位疲弱表现的主因。

中国十八届三中全会后，中国政府表现出来的改革决心，很大程度上是对以投资为主拉动中国经济发展方式的彻底改革。外界多有预期，认为中国设定调低GDP增速，主要的宏观管理风向是对货币流动性的控制。中国央行在十八届三中会之后，也向市场透露出只进行短期的微调，甚至在严格控制商业银行以对过度投资、过剩产能等领域的贷款规模。因此，在中国新一轮重大改革过程中，将会为此一段时间的健康通胀水平。这会在一定程度中支持中国经济深化改革的顺利进行。

但却会造成中国投资者、消费者对于黄金白银这类避险保值商品的暂时冷落。特别是一些金融机构对金银投资的减少，虽然也会受到消费者对首饰需求持续增加的弥补，但投资型金银条、金银币，收藏和纪念型的金银条、金银币市场会到室暂时打击。因此，虽然中国市场的黄金白银需求整体规模还在扩大，但增速会有明显下降。这也会间接的影响到全球市场的金银供需状况。

然而，从金银价格在过去三个月里的震荡下行趋势来看，金银市场的独立和部分场内资金的外逃，反而是一次市场参与者结构优化的过程。金银价格的持续震荡下跌，充分的释放了市场的做空动能，这为未来金银价格反弹减轻了压力。当前金银市场主要还是缺少对未来价格上涨的信心和投资热情，这与近期国际环境对金银市场基本面的影响平淡有关。但相对过去几个月，甚至是几年里的金银价格，处于当前1200美元附近和黄金和20美元下方的白银，还是具有一定的中长线价格投资优势。

因此，在调整低位的较长时间震荡整固，更多是金银价格的一次蓄积能量。在市场重拾信心之后，伴随着全球金融效率的提高，以及投资者和消费者参与热情的回升，我们判断金银价格还会震荡上向，以化解未来全球经济从复苏走向繁荣过程中的通胀危险。

Source: http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2013/12/06162316288222.shtml

06 December 2013 - China's biggest jeweller sees gold in the masses

Posted: 06 Dec 2013 12:59 AM PST

From: http://in.news.yahoo.com/china-39-biggest-jeweller-sees-gold-masses-231832028--finance.html?

HONG KONG (Reuters) - The world's most valuable jewellery retailer Chow Tai Fook , which counts Cartier and Tiffany & Co as competitors, is on a quest to conquer the hearts of China's future big spenders. It's weapons of choice: Hello Kitty and Winnie the Pooh.

Superman and the Angry Birds team also feature in Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group's range of fashionable, and affordable, pieces which the company hopes will win over the millions of Chinese who live outside major cities but who are reaping the benefits of a rapidly growing economy and who remain enamoured by the gleam of gold.

"We are quite similar to the fast fashion way of business in that our products are only available for a limited period of time," Kent Wong, managing director of Chow Tai Fook, told Reuters.

"The stock-keeping units will have to respond promptly to the fast-changing tastes of customers, especially young customers, who can share information about trends very quickly on their smartphones," he added.

China, the world's second largest economy, is on track to overtake India as the world's biggest consumer of gold this year as falling prices encourage purchases for both personal use and investment.

Combine that penchant for gold with a population that is rapidly urbanising, and becoming more affluent and trend-conscious in the process, and building customer loyalty as well as keeping up with fashion becomes key to the prospects of jewellery retailers.

About 100 million people are likely to move into cities over the next 17 years, according to ratings agency Moody's. China is already the second largest market for Zara-brand owner Inditex , the world's biggest fashion retailer.

"Just like fast fashion, fast jewellery is the right stuff to target at the youth and the products can also sell at a better margin when they are limited edition," said Renee Tai, a Hong-Kong based analyst at brokerage UOB-Kay Hian.

GOLD FOR THE MASSES

Chow Tai Fook's fashion jewellery, which costs between HK$200 and HK$2,000, is a far cry from the luxury offerings that have traditionally accounted for over 80 percent of sales, and which on average cost about 10 times as much.

But the shift to expand mass-market retail is already paying off. Chow Tai Fook saw its net profit rise by a forecast-beating 92.3 percent in the six months ended September, with same-store sales growing 33.2 percent.

Chow Tai Fook, which has a market value of nearly $16 billion, is not alone in targeting the masses.

Smaller rival Luk Fook Holdings International , with a market value of $2.4 billion, is looking at opening stores in busy railway stations to expand its reach in China and raise its profile in less developed cities and the vast hinterland.

Building brand loyalty also makes good business sense.

Repeat purchases by Chow Tai Fook's Hong Kong members contributed almost 17 percent to total revenue in Hong Kong and Macau for the six months ended September, while those from its China members made up nearly one-quarter of total sales in the mainland, company data shows.

"We are seeing a significant surge in retailers investing in loyalty programs in order to increase consumers' loyalty as it's getting harder and harder for retailers to drive growth by purely relying on their quick pace of expansion," said Brian Negley, vice president of consumer research firm Nielsen China.

IMAGE CONSCIOUS

But as it pushes into rapidly changing jewellery, Chow Tai Fook faces the challenge of retaining its reputation for exclusive, luxury items while also appealing to the masses.

The company, founded in 1929, aims to achieve this by selling some of its fast jewellery products online, where most customers are aged between 20 and 35.

Chow Tai Fook also maintains three distinct store layouts that cater to its clients - the high-end luxury consumers, the youth and the mass market, managing director Wong said.

Analysts say focusing on the younger generation is key.

"The company has to ensure this group of people gets familiar with the brand and they won't feel your products are out of date," said UOB-Kay Hian analyst Tai.

"They have to groom a new group of customers to support the brand and products."

Source: http://in.news.yahoo.com/china-39-biggest-jeweller-sees-gold-masses-231832028--finance.html?