Home

11 November 2013 - Supply shortage likely to prop up gold

Posted: 11 Nov 2013 03:22 AM PST

From:http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/commodities/article5338015.ece?

CHENNAI, NOV 11: Gold prices in the domestic spot and futures market are likely to come under pressure in line with the global trend on Monday.

However, the domestic market may turn firm if any unusual buying activity crops up for the wedding season in the face of supply shortage.

The Indian bullion market is starved of supplies as the Government's norms for import that at least 20 per cent of each imported gold consignment should be exported is proving to be a stumbling block in getting the yellow metal into the country.

Otherwise, there is no justification in prices rising on Saturday after global prices dropped below $1,300 an ounce on Friday night.

The other factor that can prop up gold is a fall in the rupee as any weakening of the Indian currency against the dollar makes import of commodities such as gold, crude oil and vegetable oils costlier.

US jobs data

In the global market, the trend looks a little bearish after the US jobs data showed that more jobs had been added than expected. It has given rise to fears that the US Federal Reserve could speed up its plans to prune its $85-billion-a-month stimulus programme.

Bears will also gain strength from hedge funds and money managers raising their bets on gold falling further. Gold holdings in SPDR Trust, world's largest exchange-traded fund, remained unchanged at 868.42 tonnes.

Spot gold, gold futures

In early trade in Asia, spot gold quoted at $1,286.35 an ounce and gold futures maturing for delivery in December at $1,285.70.

In the domestic market on Saturday, gold for jewellery (99.5 per cent purity) closed at Rs 30,790 for 10 gm and pure gold (99.9 per cent) at Rs 30,940. On MCX and NCDEX, gold December contracts could trade below Rs 30,000.

Geo-political tensions

With Iran unable to reach an accord with the six major global powers on its nuclear programme, geo-political tensions have cropped up again. This is likely to help crude oil rise.

Brent crude for delivery in December edged higher at $105.51 a barrel and US crude to be delivered the same month at $94.69.

Soyabean, crude palm oil

The oils and oilseeds market may rule firm after the US Department of Agriculture said that though soyabean yield will be higher, the acreage is some 700,000 acres lower.

Besides, it has projected a good export demand for soyabean. This could result in carryover stocks dropping marginally. However, prices could be kept under check by a higher Brazilian soyabean crop.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soyabean for delivery in January quoted lower at $12.92 a bushel. Crude palm oil on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange opened higher at 2,534 ringgit or $793.50 a tonne.

Corn, wheat prices

Corn (industrial maize) scenario in the US is similar to soyabean with the yield likely to be higher and acreage lower. Wheat, on the other hand, is under pressure on expectations of higher carry-over stocks.

CBOT corn for delivery in December quoted at $4.29 a bushel and wheat for delivery the same month at $6.50.

Source:http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/commodities/article5338015.ece?

11 November 2013 - 中国经济改革将催生避险情绪利好黄金

Posted: 11 Nov 2013 03:16 AM PST

From:http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2013/11/11072616119689.shtml

中国领导人周六（11月9日）召开为期4日的十八届三中全会，许多分析师都预计这次会议可能标志中国35年来最大一次经济改革，而这将对金价构成显著支撑。

　　现货黄金周五（11月8日）纽约时段盘初重挫逾30美元，并跌至千三关口下方，因日内公布的美国10月非农数据远超市场预期。此前市场人士都认为黄金已经跌入一段长期的熊市，但部分分析师指出亚洲稳健的实物金需求有望帮助金价重回1300美元上方。

　　Silvercrest Asset Management首席策略师Patrick Chovanec称，"中国的改革若想取得成效，过程必定是艰辛和痛苦的，鉴于这个原因我认为许多中国百姓可能会购入更多黄金以寻求避险，特别是当中国资产泡沫破灭的预期升温之后。"

　　Chovanec还表示，"对于中国投资者来说，眼线最热门的就是投资房地产市场，某种程度而言这个投资黄金有异曲同工之处，而一旦房市遭到修正，中国百姓就会转而买入更多黄金。" 预计共产党三中全会将深入谈论城市化问题，并通过上调房产税以抑制房市泡沫破灭的可能性。

　　North Square Blue Oak中国研究员Miranda Carr称，"中国房产税递增将削弱房地产的投资兴趣，而黄金很可能成本楼市的替代品。"

　　BullionVault研究员Adrian Ash称，"如果北京敢上调房产税，则2014年中国新年的黄金销量将大幅上涨。过去中国也曾尝试为房市降温，但都没有对实物金需求造成影响。"

　　ETF Securities高级分析师Martin Arnold称，"由于文化差异，亚洲如中国及印度的家庭普遍都会将黄金作为财富储存的第一选择，我预计中国改革进程的不确定性将促使中国百姓重新关注黄金。"